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3rd Annual Conference of the EuropeanDecisionSciencesInstitute (EDSI) will be hosted by Altınbaş University on June 24-27, 2012, in Istanbul, Turkey.

We invite contributions from all disciplines relevant to decision making and decision processes. Participants from the academic community, from business and industry, as well as the public sector, are warmly invited to contribute to the conference.

Please visit www.edsi2012-altinbas.com for detailed information.

10th Annual Conference of the International Logistics & Supply Chain Congress will be held with the cooperation of Altınbaş University and the Logistics Association (LODER) on November 8-10, 2012, in Istanbul, Turkey. The conference invites both academics and logistics professionals to share their ideas, research and experience on the recent developments and new approaches in the logistics sector. For detailed information and questions you can contact lm-scm2012@altinbas.edu.tr

MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY AND GROWTH IN MANUFACTURING SECTOR:

EVIDENCE FROM FIRM-LEVEL DATA

by

Asst. Prof. Dr. Atilla ÇİFTER

Altınbaş University

International Logistics Management Department

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of macroeconomic volatilities on the firm growth in manufacturing sector in Turkey. The dynamic panel data with generalized method moments-system (GMM-system) approach is employed on manufacturing firms over the period 2002-2010. Empirical results show that interest rate, foreign exchange rate, and GDP growth volatilities negatively affect sales growth. The results suggest that; for an average, one conditional standard deviation increase in the macroeconomic volatilities reduce the sales growth up to 3.31 percentage points. This shows that macroeconomic stability is one of the main determinants of firm growth.

The effect of macroeconomic volatilities are also tested based on firm size and it is found that macroeconomic volatilities negatively affect sales growth of the small firms (1-99 employees) and the large firms (>500 employees), but none of the macroeconomic volatility affects the medium firms (100-499 employees). Among others, small firms are found to be the most fragile to macroeconomic volatilities. These findings are also robust to controlling for several factors, including global crises period, and additional control variables.

Bio

Atilla Cifter is an assistant professor at Altınbaş University. He is a graduate of economics at Dokuz Eylul University and he obtained PhD in econometrics (major in time series analysis) at Marmara University, Turkey. His research is published in various international journals including Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Applications, Economic Modelling, and Journal of Risk Finance. His research interests include macroeconomics, applied macroeconometrics, and time series analysis. He refereed numerous articles for journals including Journal of Banking and Finance, EJOR, and Economic Modelling. 

Place – Date – Time

Altınbaş University Conference Hall

Friday, January 27, 2012, 2:30 pm